Welp, one of the three Yankees players that the Yankees couldn't afford to get injured has a massive MRI looming. Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young and only "sure thing" in the Yankees rotation is going for an MRI on his right elbow Monday after not bouncing back like he would like to in between bullpens.
Cole has been a workhorse for the Yankees since they signed him to a mega deal after the 2019 season. In his four full seasons with the Yankees, he has never missed a start due to injury (only Covid protocols in the 2020 season) and capped it off with his best season as a Yankee last year as one of the only few bright spots in a lost season. Cole finished 2023 with 209 IP and an ERA of 2.63, consistently going deep into games to give the Yankees bullpen a (much-needed most of the time) night off.
Plenty of Yankee fans, pitching fans, and analysts were looking forward to seeing how Cole could improve upon his dominant 2023 campaign, but all that excitement has turned to fear. Aaron Boone spoke to the media today in Clearwater to break the news, and Bryan Hoch reported that Boone said Cole's feeling like he does in the regular season after a long start after a throwing session. The most concerning aspect of this is that Cole is still in his ramp-up period, and is throwing about 50 pitches per start at this point. For now, it is wait-and-see mode as the Yankees and Cole are hoping for good news and think they are getting ahead of this by looking into this now.
If this injury is serious, what does it mean for this Yankees team and will they sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery to fill the massive void that would be created by Cole's injury? Let's get into it on this edition of The Pinstripe!
Irreplaceable Hit to the World Series Aspirations
There's no use tip-toeing around it, this would be an irreplaceable loss. The Yankees indisputably have three of the best players in the world: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gerrit Cole. However, of those three players, only one is a pitcher. If Judge or Soto were to miss time, there is still one other player in the lineup capable of carrying the offense in their absence. That's not so much the case when it comes to Gerrit Cole and this pitching staff.
Gerrit Cole is arguably the best pitcher on the planet. Any team would really feel it if they lost a player of his caliber. That loss can be a lot easier to take if there are other front-of-the-rotation and dependable starters on your team. Look at the Orioles, who lost their ace from 2023 Kyle Bradish for the 2024 season. Even though he's not on the same tier as Cole, that loss still hurts the team, but they can find comfort in the fact that they also have Corbin Burnes under contract for this season, someone who they can rely on for numerous high-quality innings.
This is nowhere near the case for this Yankees team. Even before the news broke about Cole, there were plenty of questions about the Yankees starting pitching. The first concern for the Yankees rotation was the lack of depth. The Yankees traded most of their MLB-ready starting pitching depth in the trade to bring in superstar Juan Soto, something that they should and would do again in a heartbeat but left plenty of question marks about what would happen if the starting rotation faced injuries or underperformed.
The second concern with the Yankees rotation was outside of Cole, every pitcher had some sort of question mark attached to them. Carlos Rodon, who was signed to be the co-ace to Gerrit Cole last offseason, struggled with injuries and severely underperformed in 2023. Nestor Cortes, who was an all-star in 2022, also severely struggled and faced some shoulder issues in 2023. Marcus Stroman, a groundball pitcher whose stuff is made for the flyball-friendly Yankee Stadium, hasn't thrown more than 140 innings in either of the past two seasons. Clarke Schmidt struggled against lefties at the beginning of the season and struggled to face the order a third time through, consistently relying on multiple innings from the bullpen to finish games.
Cole was the one player the Yankees weren't supposed to worry about starting pitching-wise. Now, they have to hope he's okay and come up with a backup plan for what to do if he has to miss an extended period.
Blake Snell? Jordan Montgomery? What's Plan B?
If Cole were to miss a significant amount of time, there's nobody on the planet that can fill the void left behind by him. The two options that would be talked about the most, are the second and third-best FA pitchers this offseason in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Snell, coming off his second Cy Young, could be a popular choice among fans. He's pitched in the AL East before and really seemed to figure something out last season en route to a dominant summer and fall.
Jordan Montgomery, an ex-Yankee, helped carry an injured Rangers pitching staff to a World Series after a midseason trade, dominating the Yankees' arch-nemesis Astros along the way. Montgomery has been a solid pitcher throughout his career but reached a new level last season, especially in the playoffs where he allowed 10 earned runs over 31 innings (5 starts, 6 appearances).
Despite their accolades and the obvious need, both these players probably will still not be Yankees if Cole has to miss time.
Both pitchers have their question marks, and both would still cost a lot of money. The Yankees are above the third luxury tax threshold and would have to pay the equivalent of the 2024 salary in luxury tax, (i.e. turning a 30m a year deal into a 60m first year, with half being the salary and the other half being taxes).
Maybe if the Yankees weren't already above this tax threshold, Hal Steinbrenner would consider it, but it's hard to see him okay-ing a deal that would cost this much money. Add in the fact that Hal ponied up a lot of money for Rodon to be a co-ace last season and I think attempting to replace Cole with a free agent is out of the question.
Instead, look for Brian Cashman to be aggressive with trade offers. The Yankees are consistently asked to give up more prospects than other teams just because they're the Yankees, but if the right player is available Cashman should pull the trigger. Yes, Spencer Jones had a
very nice spring training, but he still has plenty of developing to do before he can contribute at the major league level, and anybody not named Anthony Volpe or Jasson Dominguez should be available for the right player.
The big name to watch for if the Yankees do decide to pursue a trade would be Dylan Cease given that he has two more seasons of team control. The Yankees were turned off by the ask earlier this offseason, but could and should revisit this option if Cole's injury is serious and they believe Cease's control issues last year are fixable.
Another name that could intrigue the Yankees would be the 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Bieber's faced the Yankees plenty of times throughout his career and will be a free agent after the season leading to a much lower cost than Cease. Bieber hasn't recreated his 2020 season but did spend time
this offseason at Driveline, which is known for helping both pitchers and hitters progress.
Overall, the Yankees need to hope for good news, as none of the players available will come close to filling the 209 dominant innings the Yankees got from Cole last season.
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