Status of the Yankees: Trade Deadline Seller

 

Brian Cashman, GM and SVP of the Yankees

In yesterday’s post, we discussed the arguments for why the Yankees should buy and whom they should target. Today, we’re going to talk about some reasons why they should sell, and at the end of the article, I’ll give my two cents on how I believe Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner should approach this deadline.  Let's get into it.

Reasons not to buy:

In yesterday’s post, there were a lot of hypotheticals driving our argument for buying.  Realistically, not all of those are going to work out.  Maybe the rotation lives up to the hype, but watching Rizzo and Stanton hit, can you fully convince yourself that they will turn it around?  Is Judge’s freak toe injury still bothering him?  Can the other key players with concerning injury histories (Rodon, Bader, Stanton) stay healthy? Can Gleyber keep this approach for the rest of the season?  Will the current high-leverage guys in the bullpen have enough in the tank come playoffs despite already showing cracks? We haven’t even discussed DJ LeMahieu’s offensive struggles—someone Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone swore last year would’ve made a difference in the Astros series last year.

All of these are valid questions that the Yankees need to sit down and ask themselves if they believe all of this will happen. 

After they determine that, they need to figure out if this team can hit postseason pitching.  Even against the Guardians, a team that we Yankee fans love to clown and who had to play in the wildcard round, the Yankees were pushed to their absolute limit and barely snuck past them.  

Last postseason, the Yankee pitching pitched as advertised except for an injured Nestor who left everything on the field, but the hitters struggled against playoff pitching. First, it was the Guardian’s bullpen with their high velocity, high leverage relievers, where it felt like if the Yankees didn’t jump out to an early lead the game was already lost.  Then came the Astros series where the Astros pitchers just ran through the Yankees hitters like they were a AAA team.  

As of now, this Yankees lineup is the same, if not worse than the lineups Boone ran during the playoffs and I don’t think Cody Bellinger moves the needle enough to give me confidence that the Yankees will be able to hit the best pitchers in baseball consistently in October.

The Yankees also need to consider their current position.  Yes, the AL East is stacked and yes, they’re still within striking distance of the wildcard but at the end of the day they’re currently in last place facing an uphill battle.  The division feels pretty lost at this point as the Orioles look like they’re going to run away with it, especially if they add some starting pitching before the deadline.  This sounds even worse when you consider that the Yankees are 46-47 with a run differential of -30 against all teams that are not the Royals or A’s (Per Max Goodman and Katie Sharp).

The Yankees' best hope to go deep in the postseason is to claim the last wildcard spot, as then they would face the AL Central winner (Twins/Guardians) in the wildcard round where they will have to start Cole and Rodon.  If this happens, they would face the AL west winner, which they hope would be the Rangers as they wouldn’t have Cole available until game 3. If the Astros overtake the Rangers for the AL West, even if the Yankees win the wildcard round, they should start packing their bags for Cancún as it will be a near-impossible task to beat the Astros in a best-of-5 series with Cole and Rodon only pitching once in the series.

One last non-Yankee performance reason to sell is that with the expanded wildcard, there are less than ten teams that will sell at the deadline.  Additionally, there are not many elite-level players available this year.  Due to this, the Yankees can get higher value for any players they are willing to trade this year.

Gleyber Torres, Yankee second baseman

Who to Sell

Now that we talked about some reasons why the Yankees should consider selling at the deadline, let’s go into some potential options that the Yankees could trade away. Unfortunately, there aren’t many options.

Gleyber Torres: Trading Gleyber would be the equivalent of waiving the white flag.  He has one more year of team control and is currently the Yankees' second-best hitter behind reigning MVP Aaron Judge.  However, there is a bit of a log jam in the middle infield as the Yankees are committed to DJLM through 2026 and are playing Oswald Peraza out of position at third base.  Gleyber is also one of the best-hitting second basemen in the league and he is having one of the most consistent years of his career.

Harrison Bader: Bader is an elite defensive centerfielder whose batting average and slugging have increased since joining the Yankees.  Bader is a free agent at the end of the season and would only be a rental but he is one of the best, if not the best, defensive centerfielders in baseball that can upgrade any team's outfield defense.

Wandy Peralta: Wandy is also a free agent this offseason so this would only be a rental for any team that acquires him but Wandy has been elite ever since joining the Yankees.  Wandy has a sub-3 ERA since joining the Yankees and is someone Boone has consistently relied on in high-leverage situations.  Wandy also isn’t afraid to pitch every day, as in the playoffs last year, he appeared in every game of the ALDS and two of the four games in the ALCS.

Clay Holmes: Clay Holmes, like Wandy, has been one of Boone’s most trusted high-leverage guys despite his ups and downs.  The pro is when Clay Holmes is on, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball with two unhittable pitches. Clay Holmes unseated Aroldis Chapman as the closer last year pitching to a 0.54 ERA before the all-star break before struggling with command down the stretch.  This year he has been more like that 0.54 ERA pitcher and has one more year of team control.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: IKF has turned himself into a super utility player and can play left field, center field, shortstop, third base, and can be an emergency catcher.  He also is having the second-best offensive season of his career.  Lastly, the Dodgers just traded two pitchers for Kiké Hernandez who is also a super utility player but has been one of the worst players in baseball this year.

There are a couple of other players the Yankees can consider trading such as Clarke Schmidt, Luis Severino, or one of the catchers but the likelihood of those happening would be very slim.

Estevan Florial, Yankee Prospect

What would I do:

If I were the GM of the Yankees, I would not buy this offseason, I would do a “re-tool” instead.  Unfortunately, this isn’t 2016. Clay Holmes and Wandy Peralta will not bring back the prospect capital that Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman did, but they could still bring back some prospects that could be valuable contributors soon.  I would also trade IKF as despite playing well and being a super utility guy, there isn’t a spot for him in the future as Oswaldo Cabrera ideally will fill the super-utility role for this team

With Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole both on the wrong side of 30, I would focus on prospects that can contribute sooner rather than later.  Because of this, I would not listen to offers for Gleyber Torres unless they included two MLB-ready players prospects, ideally one outfielder and one starting pitcher that profiles to be a number 2 at best and number 4 starter at worst.  I also trade Harrison Bader and try to resign him in the offseason similar to what the Yankees did in 2016 with Chapman. 

Trading Bader also has the added benefit of opening up an everyday outfield spot for Estevan Florial, as we need to know if he can play at the major league level.  I would also call up Austin Wells to play every day as he is 24 and all the players drafted around him are already in the Major Leagues.

The last thing I would do is play Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe every day.  Consistently the Yankees bury prospects in the minors and destroy their value by not developing them properly.  By giving these prospects a chance to play, we can evaluate what positions need to be addressed this offseason and have a better plan than we did last year.  Ideally, Florial, Peraza, and Wells can all contribute and we do not need to spend big on a third baseman or outfielders. 

As always, let me know what you would do if you were in the Yankees' position and what your thoughts are on this season and the future of the Yankees.

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#RepBX #Yankees #Sellers #Re-Tool #TradeDeadline #HotStove #GleyberDay #Judge #WorldSeries