The X Factors: What can take the Yankees from Disappointment to Dominant

Last season was a nightmare.  Between the unacceptable play and flawed roster, I hated the dreaded waiting for every game to start. Every series we told ourselves: "Maybe this will finally be the series the Yankees figure it out and look like a postseason team.  Maybe the offense will stop looking overmatched. "

Every series we were let down, as no-name pitchers and prospects mowed down hitters like they were prime Randy Johnson, and scoring three runs would be a "good" offensive night for that team. 

This year's team has an opportunity to make us forget last season's frustrations. As I mentioned in my Spring Training Roster Preview, Cashman and the Yankees aggressively pursued trades to address their biggest issues (lack of lefty-hitting, healthy outfielders), and utilized Free Agency to supplement their trades and address other needs (pitching).  Despite this, there are still some lingering internal concerns that need to be resolved if the Yankees wish to call themselves World Champions for the first time in 15 years.  Enter the X-Factors, my five critical elements that will determine if the Yankees are playing miserable October baseball again or if we're forced to watch an unwatchable product for the second consecutive season.

1. Health/Injuries

The Yankees have been killed by the injury bug in recent years.  Yes, some of the injuries were fluke injuries (like Judge running into a wall or Tatis running into Rizzo's head), but most have been soft tissue, non-contact injuries like Nestor's shoulder, Rodon's back, Stanton's entire body, and more.  

The Yankees completely overhauled their strength and conditioning staff in 2020 after a then-record-setting injury-plagued campaign, but unfortunately, nothing has improved.  The Yankees need to find a way to keep their best players on the field.  All these built-in rest days Boone gives to his players appear to have had no added benefit.  

This is definitely the biggest X-Factor heading into the season, especially for the pitching staff as the Yankees gave up most of their starting pitching depth in the trade for Soto.  If Judge, Cole, or Soto miss the season the World Series aspirations are probably DOA, as those are three irreplaceable players, but the Yankees also can't afford to lose half their opening-day pitching staff and a third of their lineup to injuries as well.  

The injury luck needs to turn and the training staff and players need to have figured out a way to keep the best players on the field.  Every team deals with injuries but no team deals with injuries to the Yankees extent and that can't be a fluke.

2. Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton partially falls under X-factor one since he always seems to be injured despite looking like a Greek God, but when he did play last year he wasn't only not effective, but actually a detriment to the team.  In the 101 games he played last year, Stanton accumulated a -0.5 oWAR (per Baseball Reference) with the heavy majority coming as a DH.  

Stanton can be really frustrating to watch even when he's on top of his game.  Even at his best, he can look totally lost for 4 pitches in a 5 pitch at bat, but then finds a way to hit that 5th pitch 450 feet.  At his best, he can carry this team single-handedly but unfortunately, we did not see close to that last season. 

Last season, Stanton really struggled to put the ball in play, hitting .197 on the season and he especially struggled against high-velocity pitches.  This offseason he needs to have worked on staying healthier and figuring out how to hit high-velocity pitchers (both are not easily fixable), as it seems like every bullpen is full of pitchers throwing 95+.  

Stanton will not be going anywhere soon, as he is still owed 118m over the next 4 years (per Spotrac) and has a no-trade clause thanks to his 10/5 rights (not that anyone would trade for him anyway).  If Stanton can have a bounce-back season, as his power is unique, he would really lengthen our much-improved lineup.

3. Nestor Cortes

Nestor will always be one of my favorite pitchers to watch.  He doesn't have the A+ velocity that is coveted by teams and relies on movement, deception, and accuracy to succeed.  From 2021-2022, Nestor found plenty of success in his second stint with the Yankees, pitching in 50 games (starting 42) for 251.1 IP, a 2.61 ERA, and one all-star appearance. There were also calls for Nestor to start over Cole in the playoffs in each of these seasons, a sign of how much faith Yankee fans had in him. 

Unfortunately in 2023, Nestor struggled to produce and stay on the field, pitching to an ERA just under 5.00 while only starting 12 games.  Were his struggles due to injuries, or have hitters figured him out?  At his best, Nestor can be a solid second starter like he was in 2022, and at his worst (last season) can be a fringe fifth starter. 

Given the Yankee's lack of starting pitching depth (and questions about Rodon), the Yankees need Nestor to look more like the 2021/2022 version of himself than the 2023 pitcher. Given that Nestor succeeded without high velocity, I tend to think his struggles last year were due to injuries and believe he is due for a great bounce-back season.

4. Anthony Volpe

Volpe electrified us last year with his spring training performance, teasing us fans that he can have the immediate impact that fellow top prospects like Adley Rutschman, and Julio Rodriguez had, and forced the Yankees to make him our everyday shortstop.  Unfortunately, the electric play didn't carry over to the regular season and he is now a massive talking point among fans, with some fans declaring him a massive bust and some pointing at his gold glove, 20 homers, and 20 steals as last season being a success.

The truth is that he was fine.  He wasn't great, or even good, but he also wasn't a trainwreck.  Anyone who watched 20 Yankee games could tell you he didn't deserve that Gold Glove, but he still played almost every game, gained valuable experience, and showed flashes of the offensive threat he can evolve into.

That said, he needs to progress. The average cannot hover around .200, the OBP needs to go up, and ideally, the defense slightly increases as well.  This is the prospect that caused the Yankees to pass on three World Series Champions (Trea Turner, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa) and many other quality options (Xander Bogarts, Marcus Semien, etc.) the past couple of off-seasons. He doesn't need to be an all-star/MVP candidate/Silver Slugger, he just needs to progress and show that he's still an unfinished product.

As I mentioned in my last article previewing the roster, I'd like to see Volpe sacrifice his power and become a line-to-line hitter like DJLM and Gleyber Torres (in 2023).  The home runs will come but he was never going to be a 30 homerun threat given his stature, and his best attribute is his ability to cause havoc on the bases with his high base-stealing IQ and speed.

5. Back of the Bullpen

Much of the bullpen is still up in the air, and lots of young pitchers will be going back and forth between AAA and the Bronx to give Boone as many arms as possible each game.  The Yankees have prided themselves in recent years on building an elite back of the bullpen to shorten games, but heading into the 2024 season the only role we know for certain is that Clay Holmes will be the closer.

Additionally, the Yankees lost their best reliever and ultimate fireman Michael King in the Juan Soto trade, and he's left behind a massive hole.  Not one player will be able to slide into his spot, as King was elite at getting out of jams and was able to go through the order more than once to give Boone length when the rest of his best arms were down.

Maybe one of the young pitching prospects like Will Warren or Clayton Beeter can slide into the multiple-innings role, but it's not fair to expect them to be as good at it as King was.  In terms of the Fireman role for high-leverage situations, Loaisiga could be the best option.  At his best, Loasigia is unhittable, but he battled injuries and missed almost all of 2023.  Only time will tell if he can be the same player we saw as our future closer when he first came up.