Prospect Progress: Extended run in the show starts to pay dividends

 



The Yankees have been a frustrating team recently.  The front office essentially slapped the fan base across the face with their handling of the trade deadline and the Yankees continue to struggle offensively outside of Aaron Judge.  Part of the offensive struggles is due to the Yankees' favoritism towards veteran players.  They continue to hit Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo (who we just found out has been concussed for two-plus months, potentially explaining his poor play), DJ LeMahieu, and previously Josh Donaldson in the heart of the order despite showing signs of regression and being below average hitters.  

The most frustrating part of this situation is that these players being forced into the lineup daily is stopping young prospects from getting an extended run at the major-league level, stunting their development and tanking their value.   However, rather than focusing on the negatives, let's focus on the positives.  The Yankees beat the reigning champions and best team in baseball 4-3 last night, with two of their ex-top prospects playing a major role in the victory.  Both of these prospects have benefited from an extended run at the major-league level, and this experience paid off in a big way last night as Clarke Schmidt allowed two earned runs over five innings against arguably the best lineup in baseball while Anthony Volpe drove in the winning run. Let's take a deeper dive into these two players.


Clarke Schmidt

Clarke Schmidt has quietly been the Yankees' second-best pitcher behind Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole. However, it wasn't an easy journey for the Yankees' top pitching prospect in 2020.  Before this season Schmidt was never given a real chance to be one of the Yankees' starting pitchers, starting only five of his thirty-four MLB games and bounced between the MLB roster and minor leagues (or taxi squad in 2020) in from 2020-2021.  Clarke was able to carve out a consistent role in the Majors in 2022 but served primarily as a reliever and was never used in high-leverage spots.

Coming into 2023, Clarke Schmidt was given the opportunity to compete with Domingo German for the last starter spot, filling out a rotation that would also consist of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino.  However, due to injuries to Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, and later Nestor Cortes, Schmidt and German both made the Yankees' opening-day rotation.  

The big question with Schmidt was his ability to handle lefties. In his career lefties have slashed .293/.377/.498 for an OPS of .875 while righties have slashed .223/.279/.355 for an OPS or .634.  To deal with this, Schmidt focused on developing a cutter this offseason, giving him a pitch that runs into the hands of lefties, and this season it has been the main pitch he's used when facing lefties per baseball savant.  However, despite this new pitch, Schmidt experienced plenty of growing pains, especially early in the season pitching to an 0-3 record with an ERA of 6.84 in six starts.  Fortunately for Schmidt, the Yankees had no other reliable options and did not relegate him to the bullpen or back to the minors, giving Schmidt a chance to address this issue at the major league level.  Schmidt made the adjustment around mid-May.  He switched to primarily attacking lefties with his cutter and sweeper rather than his cutter and curveball and since the start of June has allowed 34 earned runs in 84.2 innings, pitching to an ERA of 3.61.  He's also on a streak of 13 consecutive starts allowing 3 or fewer earned runs.

Fast forward to last night. Schmidt faced the best lineup in the league whose two best hitters are two of the best lefties in the MLB.  Schmidt forced Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez to go 0-3 with a walk, giving the Yankees a great chance to win.  Schmidt's ability to address his weakness at the Major League level has been a massive boost to his development as he looks like he is worthy of at least a mid-rotation spot for many years to come.


Anthony Volpe

Volpe was universally a top 10 prospect in all of baseball coming into the year and was a big reason why the Yankees have passed on the numerous all-star shortstops that have hit free agency in recent years.  However, Volpe barely played at AAA but had an extremely strong spring training, forcing the Yankees to commit to finishing his development at the Major League level.  

Understandably, there have been some growing pains as Volpe is slashing .215/.291/.384 for an OPS of .675, not what any of the Yankee fans were hoping for from one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. Adding to the fans' frustration is the fact that several highly-rated prospects, such as Elly De La Cruz, Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Corbin Carrol have made an immediate, substantial impact on their respective teams. 

However, a closer examination of the statistics reveals glimpses of Volpe's potential. In June of this year, Volpe posted a slash line of .265/.342/.426, leading to an OPS of .769. Additionally, Volpe is a threat on the bases, having stolen over 20 bases this year, adding another dimension to his game. Since July 17th, Volpe has gone 14 for 45, equating to a batting average of .311. While this could be attributed to a two-week hot streak, it might also indicate his ability to adjust to Major League pitching. Just this week, Volpe contributed significantly to critical moments in games, hitting a game-tying home run off Rays' ace Shane McClanahan and delivering a two-out, go-ahead RBI single against Astros' high-leverage reliever Kendall Graveman.

As was the case, with Schmidt, affording Volpe an extended stint in the Majors will be pivotal for his long-term development.  He excelled against minor league pitching last year, and his consistent exposure to Major League pitching is the best way for him to further refine his offensive skills.

Closing thoughts

The Yankees are currently in the biggest stretch of the season, facing many teams that are ahead of them and will make the playoffs, giving them a chance to see where they realistically stack up against the American League's best teams.  The Yankees also have managed to win their last two games and that doesn't happen without Volpe's clutch hitting and Schmidts solid outing, two things that potentially could've never happened if they didn't have the MLB experience they've gotten.  With the time they've had in the majors this season, they've been able to test different approaches and see what works best for them, setting them up for more success as the season (and their careers) progress.  

If the Yankees do not win a majority of their next 9 games, they should seriously consider calling up more prospects such as Oswald Peraza, Estevan Florial, Randy Vasquez, and Everson Pereria, and give them the everyday opportunities that Volpe and Schmidt have gotten that have been instrumental in their development. The Yankees previously did this in 2016. After selling at the deadline, They called up Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Luis Severino (among others) who gained valuable experience before being key contributors on a team that went to game 7 of the ALCS in 2017.





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