Pinstripe Problems: How to fix the Yankees (Offseason Edition)

 

Sunday night, we went over the moves the Yankees should make to best position themselves for success going forward.  The season is a wash already and they need to start preparing for 2024, and the best way to do that is to play their prospects.  The most realistic route that Hal Steinbrenner and co. will follow this offseason is to not make any major acquisitions (no Cody Bellinger, Ohtani, Snell etc.) and look to cut salary to lower their luxury tax   Let's now look at what moves the Yankees should make this offseason and what the ideal rotation and lineup/bench look like for opening day 2024.

Stantonian Issue

We need to first address the massive issue the Yankees currently face. Giancarlo Stanton has been awful recently, hitting just north of .200, and looks like he can barely move now.  Additionally, he seems to whiff at sliders away consistently and is in danger of becoming an easy strikeout. Stanton can't really play the field given he can't run, and takes up the DH spot every day, making it impossible for the Yankees to give "half" rest days where they let a player DH one night like they used to in the early teens and 00s. 

Stanton is also signed through 2027 and is owed around $130m, making him arguably the worst contract in baseball right now and the most unmovable player.  Even if the Yankees ate most of this money and attached some prospects to get a team to agree to a trade for Stanton, Stanton has 10/5 rights (10 years in the league, the last 5 with one team) and can veto any trade he wants.  If Stanton would agree to a trade, he would want to be traded to a contender with a chance to add a World Series to his resume, thus the Yankees would be giving a potential roadblock on their path to winning a world series a power hitter whose contract they are mostly playing as well as good prospects to help the other team extend their championship window.  

I don't think even Uncle Stevie and his deep pockets would DFA Stanton currently with his current $130m owed, so he will be back for the foreseeable future manning the DH spot.

Trades

The Yankees will realistically look to cut cap as they re-tool, taking them out of the running for top FAs like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and more.  The best way for the Yankees to add talent to this team is to make trades.  We crafted two trades that would be accepted per a trade simulator, one adding a switch-hitting Center Fielder to the team and one adding a top pitching prospect while opening up an infield spot. 

 

Trade 1: Yankees and Cardinals

Cardinals get Will Warren and Ian Hamilton, Yankees get Dylan Carlson

The Cardinals were open to trading Carlson at this years deadline and there's no reason to believe they won't still be open to this move this offseason given the amount of quality outfielders they currently employ.  The Cardinals were looking for Major League-level pitching, which the Yankees arguably have a decent amount of.  In this trade, the Yankees trade 24-year-old AAA pitcher Will Warren and reliever Ian Hamilton to the Cardinals, giving the Cardinals a potential starter and an impact reliever.  

The Yankees will be looking to fill Center Field this offseason with the departure of Bader (whom they should not resign unless it's for one year), and Carlson does that while also giving the next manager a switch hitter who can break up the many righties the Yankees will have in the lineup next year.  The Yankees have also had tons of success identifying players that develop into elite relievers, and the organization should be confident in their ability to replace Hamilton.

Trade 2: Yankees and Marlins

Marlins get Gleyber Torres and Jhony Brito, Yankees get Max Meyer

Max Meyer is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery but is expected to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, but it will be tough for him to crack the Marlins rotation in the next year and help them with their World Series aspirations. The Marlins allegedly tried to acquire Gleyber Torres at the trade deadline, but the Yankees were asking for two starters who were already fixtures in the rotation in Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett.  Gleyber Torres can add some power to their lineup, and the Marlins would also acquire a pitcher who could be an emergency starter or long reliever for them in Jhony Brito. 

Realistically the World Series is a long shot and the Yankees should view 2024 as a retooling year, given that the Yankees will probably not be extending Gleyber Torres, as he has played well enough to price him out of the Yankees' budget (a phrase that would've been unheard of when George ran the team), they should trade him this offseason to open up an infield spot in a clogged infield and maximize the return they can get.  In this trade, the Yankees get a former elite pitching prospect who could still be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Opening Day

For this part we're projecting the rotation, starting lineup, and bench as the Yankees typically have a decent amount of turnover in the bullpen and are able to find no-name players and turn them into elite bullpen arms.  Additionally, as exciting as it would be for top prospect Jason "The Martian" Dominguez to be the starting centerfielder in 2024, he's still only 20 years old and as of today just made AAA.  At least half a season at AAA wouldn't help and Dylan Carlson (acquired in a trade) will be a nice stopgap. Let's get into it starting with the rotation.

Starting Rotation:

The ideal starting rotation on opening day would look like the following:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Carlos Rodon
3. Nestor Cortes
4. Clarke Schmidt
5. Randy Vasquez/Mike King/Max Meyer

Gerrit Cole has proven again this year that he is an elite pitcher and arguably the best player in baseball.  He's found a way to pitch in Yankee Stadium and is currently pitching his best season as a Yankee and there's no reason to believe that will change in the next year.  Carlos Rodon slides into the number 2 spot of the rotation and will stay there if he figures out how to pitch in the stadium.  Rodon's biggest killer in 2023 (outside of avoiding injuries), has been the long ball.  The homers Rodon gives up hurt more because they're typically following walks and Rodon needs to find a way to limit both of these next year if he doesn't want to lose his number 2 spot in the rotation.

Nestor Cortes has also been battling injuries all season and after his return from the 60-day IL looked like the all-star pitcher of 2022.  Nestor at his best isn't as good as Carlos Rodon, but he's far more consistent, and if Rodon struggles it's not hard to see Nestor take over the title of second-best pitcher on the Yankees.  Clarke Schmidt, who has quietly had a solid season and is developing nicely, would be a number 3 pitcher on most teams and should slide into the fourth spot of the Yankee rotation for 2024.

The final spot of the Yankee rotation should come down to Randy Vasquez and Mike King.  We already know Mike King is elite out of the bullpen and has the potential to be a very good starting pitcher, but the Yankees seriously value him as a fireman out of the bullpen, and it's fair to wonder if his dominance out of the bullpen will translate to the rotation where he will have to face hitters multiple times a game.  Randy Vasquez has shown solid stuff in his starts in 2023 and should be given a chance at the fifth spot in the rotation, but if King is the better starter they should try to convert Vasquez to a King-like role in the bullpen, where he can be a fireman and in the future return to the rotation.  The dark horse in this race for the 5th starter is trade acquisition, Max Meyer.  Meyer, who is currently coming back from Tommy John injury, has the potential to be a frontline starter.  If the Yankees feel he's ready he should be in this competition but it would be understandable if they wanted to let him build confidence in the minor leagues.

Lineup and Bench:

As mentioned at the beginning, Stanton isn't going anywhere anytime soon and unfortunately will be clogging up the DH spot for at least the next three years.  With the trade of Gleyber and the acquisition of Dylan Carlson, The Yankees opened up an infield spot and filled a major role (CF).  As mentioned above, it's more likely that the Yankees don't make any big acquisitions this offseason, and given that, the ideal starting lineup would look 

1. Anthony Volpe, SS
2. Oswald Peraza, 2B
3. Aaron Judge, RF
4. Austin Wells, C
5. DJLM, 3B
6. Everson Pereira, LF
7. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
8. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
9. Dylan Carlson, CF

    Bench: Trevino C, Oswaldo Cabrera UTIL, Estevan Florial OF, Isiah Kiner-Falefa UTIL

The lineup starts with two top prospects and speed threats, Volpe and Peraza, setting the table for the best hitter in baseball.  Austin Wells profiles like a solid clean-up hitter and can take advantage of the short porch, as well as breaks a string of righties.  DJLM has looked solid before his latest injury and can help bring home any runners left on the base with his contact and line-to-line hitting.  Everson Pereira has a lot of power but until he makes contact consistently, probably should not be in the top half of this lineup.  

Rizzo is an enigma, as before the collision with Tatis he was one of the best hitters in baseball, and after the collision was definitively the worst hitter in baseball.  It's fair to say Rizzo was hindered by the concussion, but he is 34 years old and it's fair to wonder how productive of a hitter he can be. Stanton doesn't belong above this spot, as until he can consistently make contact he should be at the bottom of the lineup where you hope he can maybe run into a home run.  Carlson is a switch hitter who has been a slightly below-average hitter in his career but also breaks a potential string of righties.

There's a lot that can change within this lineup.  If Rizzo is the hitter that he was at the start of the 2023 season he can quickly shoot up the lineup and potentially a struggling younger player could drop down.  On paper, this is a solid lineup but there will probably be some growing pains as four of the starters will be in their rookie or sophomore seasons.  If they can't play to their expectations they could easily be a below-average offense that relies solely on Aaron Judge to score runs, but if they live up to all of their hype this has the potential to be one of the best offenses in baseball. 

The bench features Trevino, who would be the backup catcher and defensive replacement for Wells.  Two utility players in IKF and Oswaldo Cabrera could be needed with the age of DJLM and Anthony Rizzo and IKF would be a solid pinch-running option as well as could be called upon in situations where the Yankees need to put the ball in play. Florial rounds out the bench as a power-hitting lefty who plays solid outfield defense.

Overall, this team has the potential to be competitive in 2024.  It won't be easy and there are a lot of questions that need to be answered, but it's not super unrealistic to think this team could make some noise in the playoffs like the 2017 baby bombers.  These moves would also make fans more interested in the 2024 team, as everyone is sick of trotting out players who are clearly not the best option.